Apple Poised to Enter the Market of Foldable Phones, Facing Stiff Competition in China

For years, the foldable smartphone market has been a playground for pioneers and a graveyard for skeptics. New industry leaks suggest that Apple is finally set to kick off its first foldable model this year, with forecast sales of up to 8 million units in the first 12 months, close to entire 2025 foldable phone sales in China.

The new iPhone Ultra will be Apple's biggest innovation gamble in a decade. But the US company prepares to enter competitive Chinese market, it faces entrenched and aggressive rivals like China's Huawei.

True to form, Apple has remained tight-lipped. However, supply chain analysts said the company is expected to begin shipments late in the third quarter, alongside the iPhone 18 Pro series. The new phone reportedly features a book-style fold with a 5.5-inch outer display and a nearly 7.8-inch inner screen -- effectively merging the iPhone experience with the productivity of an iPad mini.

Ming-Chi Kuo, a senior analyst at TF International Securities known for his "Apple scoops," said in a report this week that the device that aims to solve the industry's two biggest "pain points:" the visible screen crease and long-term durability. The iPhone Ultra is "nearly crease-free."

Sales of new iPhone Ultra models are expected to begin sometime late in the third quarter, with prices over US$2,000. They come onto a Chinese market where foldable phone sales last year topped 9.5 million units, growing 3.3 percent from a year earlier, according to International Data Corp.

The new Apple is a bit of a late-comer, but it arrives with a "tipping point" potential. Unlike the fragmented Android ecosystem, Apple's software-hardware integration is its strongest weapon. The booming iOS developer community, which springs from 2.5 billion iPhone users globally, can contribute mature apps for the new iPhone Ultra. Meanwhile, Apple's iPad business also brings the Apple experience and know-how to big-screen mobile terminals.

Industry news said that Apple purchased "several million units" of foldable screens from Samsung Electronics and is similar testing screens from China's BOE Technology, which supplies 80 percent of the China market.

However, the new Ultra series will face market challenges. Analysts warn that foldables remain a "luxury item rather than a necessity." Apple's recent Vision Pro serves as a cautionary tale. It was high-tech, expensive marvel that struggled to find a mass-market foothold.

Another challenge for Apple is artificial intelligence. As Apple plays catch-up in the global AI race, the iPhone Ultra represents more than just a screen that bends. In the Chinese mainland, where its AI service is not available, the company may lose more ground to AI-first offerings from the Android camp.

Huawei: a strong rival

While Apple prepares its debut, Huawei is reinventing the category it currently dominates. The company announced it will debut the Pura X Max, a new wide-fold phone on April 20. The marketing campaign shows it's a device that prioritizes horizontal workspace. With an inner screen of 7.6 inches, the Pura X Max utilizes a unique aspect ratio that differs from the traditional Samsung Galaxy Z Fold or Huawei's own Mate X series.

In China, Huawei had more than a 70 percent share of the foldable phone market last year, and that growth has continued to accelerate, riving the domestic foldable market into double sales from a year earlier.

BOE, China's biggest display panel maker, supplies specialized panels for Huawei, providing a self-sustaining domestic supply chain that allows the company to thrive despite US trade sanctions.

Currently, the foldable screen yield rate and innovations including "crease-free" and eye protection displays are "no problems at all," a BOE official said.

The foldable market is rapidly moving away from a niche experiment. As International Data Corp noted, the momentum is being driven by two forces: the relentless innovation of incumbents like Huawei, Honor and Vivo, and the looming shadow of Apple's entry.