China Poised to Overtake US as World's Largest Tourism Market

China is on track to surpass the United States as the world's leading tourism market within the next few years, fueled by a strategic pivot toward inbound travel and a weakening American lead in international visitor spending.

Trip.com Group, China's largest travel platform, has announced a five-year goal to bring 200 million inbound tourists to the country. James Liang, chairman of Trip.com Group, pointed out that China's inbound tourism revenue accounted for only 0.67 percent of GDP in 2025. This is significantly lower than Thailand's 10-plus percent and the 1-3 percent average seen in Europe and the US.

Liang argues that this gap represents a multi-trillion yuan opportunity that warrants a strategic re-evaluation of the sector's value.

According to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), global tourism grew at a rate of 4.1 percent in 2025, outpacing the global economic growth rate of 2.8 percent. However, the US is losing its edge.

Gloria Guevara, president and CEO of the WTTC, told media that while international visitor spending is growing in almost every other region, it is declining in the US. If current trends persist, the US could lose its top spot to China within just four years.

Trip.com believes that by 2030, China could triple its current volume of foreign visitors. By combining this volume with a projected 60 to 70 percent increase in per-capita spending through better services and infrastructure, inbound tourism could generate an additional US$300 billion in direct foreign exchange. This surge has the potential to reverse China's long-standing deficit in service trade.

"From a macro perspective, service exports – led by inbound tourism – will work in tandem with manufacturing exports to become a vital engine for high-quality economic growth," Liang stated.

Driven by favorable visa policies and improved digital payment networks, China's inbound market is diversifying. Trip.com data for the imminent May Day holiday reveals the top destinations and source markets for foreign travelers as Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Chongqing, Xiamen, Kunming, Hangzhou and Qingdao.

The top 10 source countries are: Russia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, the US, Singapore, the United Kingdom, Canada and France.