Think Tank Report Sees US$3 Trillion Trade Dividend by 2050 As Hongqiao Forum Opens

The 9th Hongqiao International Economic Forum opened in Shanghai today, drawing officials, economists and business leaders, who called for smoother trade to rebalance the global economy moving toward 2050.

Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang attended the opening ceremony and delivered a keynote speech at the forum which is being held concurrently with the 9th China International Import Expo.

At an afternoon sub-forum, the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China, released the report, "Global Trade Towards 2050: Economic Rebalancing, National Reopening and Rules Reshaping."

Deeper multilateral cooperation could add about US$3 trillion to global output by 2050 and lift global exports to about 1.18 times the baseline level, the report said.

Joint progress in clean energy and fair industrial development could create about 152 million additional manufacturing jobs in developing economies and help about 525 million people rise above the poverty line of US$8.30 a day, it added.

The report set out 10 areas for joint progress and five proposals, urging economies to uphold multilateral trade rules, update rules for digital and green trade, and give developing economies a bigger role in rule-making.

It projected cumulative investment needs of US$29 trillion for power grids and US$41.7 trillion for renewable power by 2050.

Economist Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University said the world is undergoing "the deepest and most profound rebalancing that is taking place in our time," as Asia returns to the center of the world economy after some 200 years of Western dominance.

He hailed China as the world leader in solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles, and suggested moving up its 2060 carbon-neutrality goal to 2050.

Hanneke Faber, chief executive of Swiss technology firm Logitech, said "the answer is resilience in a world in flux," capturing the benefits of global scale while staying agile and local.

China now accounts for about a third of Logitech's global workforce and is its second-largest market, she noted, adding that the company is applying to open a seventh global innovation center in Shanghai, near its manufacturing hub in Suzhou, neighboring Jiangsu Province.

The sub-forum, "Global Economic Rebalancing: Smoother Trade, Industrial Cooperation and Inclusive Development," was hosted by the Ministry of Commerce and the International Trade Centre and co-organized by Renmin University of China.